Manual Prediction Research (update January 2018)
This manual provides an introduction to the main topics of prediction research. The manual briefly discusses each topic and its relevance to the detail that is needed for understanding empirical articles. After reading the manual, readers should have a good understanding of the key methodological and analytical considerations in prediction research, and be able to read scientific articles on prediction studies critically.
R package PredictABEL
We developed PredictABEL, a package in R that covers descriptive tables, measures and figures that are used in the analysis of risk prediction studies such as measures of model fit, predictive ability and clinical utility , and risk distributions, calibration plot and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Tables and figures are saved as separate files in a user-specified format. All figures are available in a ready-made layout, but they can be customized to the preferences of the user. The package has been developed for the analysis of genetic risk prediction studies, but can also be used for studies that only include non-genetic risk factors. PredictABEL is freely available at the websites of GenABEL and CRAN.
Reporting guidelines for genetic risk prediction studies
The number of studies assessing the predictive ability of genetic risk models is steadily increasing, but the quality and completeness of reporting varies. Transparent reporting of the strengths and weaknesses of empirical studies is important to facilitate an efficient accumulation of evidence. A multidisciplinary workshop sponsored by the Human Genome Epidemiology Network developed a checklist of 25 items recommended for strengthening the reporting of Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS), building on the principles established by prior reporting guidelines. These recommendations aim to enhance the transparency of study reporting, and thereby to improve the synthesis and application of information from multiple studies that might differ in design, conduct or analysis. A detailed Explanation and Elaboration document is published separately and available here.